- Guild Investment - http://www.guildinvestment.com -
November 23, 2012
Posted By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher On November 23, 2012 in Uncategorized
|2013 Is Just Around the CornerMany changes in the business and financial sectors are expected in 2013. Let Guild Investment Management help you find the right investments to reach your investment goals. To inquire about the services we offer, please call Aubrey Ford at (310) 826-8600.
Innovation, Employment, and the Success of Any Nation
Why Innovation Must be Engendered for Any Nation to Succeed, Grow, and Enjoy a Higher Standard of Living
We read with interest Clayton Christensen’s pre-election analysis of the present conundrum of capital (“A Capitalist’s Dilemma, Whoever Wins on Tuesday,” New York Times, Nov. 3, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/business/a-capitalists-dilemma-whoever-becomes-president.html). We agree with what he has to say. Below, we summarize the core of Christensen’s insights that we feel, if were adopted, could inspire economic growth and a rising standard of living for those in the developed world…
Unintended Consequences: EPA Policies Support Global Food and Grain Price Increases
Wheat, corn and soybeans have all risen since January 1, 2012. We believe that increasing demand and an inability to rapidly increase supply will cause a continuation of shortages (and higher prices) around the world. Thus far, the U.S. policymakers seem unconcerned. As a case in point, see the November 16 article from the Financial Times titled “US will not ease corn ethanol mandate,” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/55626020-3009-11e2-a040-00144feabdc0.html
Has the Ethanol Mandate Contributed to making food too expensive in some poor countries?…
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Guild Basic Needs IndexTM
The northern hemisphere is approaching its cold season — when we can expect energy prices to rise in response to the demand for heat, in the form of electricity, gas, or oil. Likewise, the continuing effects of drought and the ethanol mandate, noted above, will likely lead to higher food prices. These will have a sharp impact on the developing world populations, and a duller — but still real — impact on the standard of living of those in the developed world.
We believe that investors and consumers should prepare themselves for the reality that real inflation — the cost of satisfying basic needs — will continue to outstrip the baseline growth of individuals’ earnings. Although core inflation statistics from official sources do not reflect the “volatilities” of food and fuel prices, as consumers, we will feel them. The Guild Basic Needs Index™ will continue to reflect a picture of how inflation in the prices of basic necessities undermines and erodes the standard of living. For more see www.gbni.info.
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