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PAUL VOLCKER IS CONCERNED...WE AGREE WITH HIM, AND WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED
     Posted On: Monday, May 19, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

In the northern hemisphere the spring is progressing with flowers and spring rains and a certain lightness of mood that returns after a long and cold winter season.  We hope that you are enjoying the season.


PAUL VOLCKER IS CONCERNED…WE AGREE WITH HIM, AND WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED

Mr. Volcker most certainly understands in great detail what is going on in the world economy and world banking system. more...

  
THE COMMODITIES CYCLE HAS A LONG WAY TO RUN
     Posted On: Monday, May 12, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

THE COMMODITIES CYCLE HAS A LONG WAY TO RUN

As I sit to write this memo, I would like to share one simple thought. This is a period of rising inflation, and rising commodity demand and we must keep our eye on the ball.  There will be times when the press and the public loudly proclaim that the commodities cycle is over-done.

We have been hearing this over and over for 6 years. All the while, we have been bullish on energy and precious metals.  We have been bullish on base metals for the past 4 years and for the past 2 years we have been bullish on foods and food related investments. more...

  
WE CONTINUE TO SEE INFLATION GLOBALLY
     Posted On: Monday, May 05, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

Before we get started, we would like to extend our best wishes for health, happiness and success to all of you.  There is much anxiety and hyperbole in the news, and we wanted to take a moment and say that we wish everyone all of the best in life.
 more...

  
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR
     Posted On: Tuesday, April 29, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

Of all commentaries that we have ever written, those dealing with ethanol and the subsidies that they enjoy have been our most controversial and have generated the most criticism from readers.  It seems that our anti-ethanol comments in early 2007 were the most criticized.  It is more than a little ironic that this was also one of the several times we warned our readers about the coming rise in food prices…and look what has happened in just fifteen months.

May I include an excerpt from our commentary written on January 26, 2007?

“GLOBAL AGRICULTURE WILL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN COMING DECADES more...

  
ARE YOU KIDDING US JOHN?
     Posted On: Tuesday, April 22, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher
Hello and warm wishes to you this April21, 2008.


ARE YOU KIDDING US JOHN?

In the three way battle for worst economic policies, Obama has a narrow lead but both Clinton and McCain are close behind. 

In our opinion, there is a simple and accurate one word description of John McCain’s proposed economic policies…terrible.  Is he really a Republican? I doubt it after seeing his proposals.

One thing is sure, if any of the three were to implement the economic policies that they have so far proposed, inflation would take off like a rocket in the U.S.  I know it is early, and they all are pandering to the mass of uninformed and economically strapped voters.  I also know that their wild ideas will probably not be implemented in full, but come on folks…your economic ideas are inflationary, with a capital “I”.

 more...
  
INFLATION IS EVERYWHERE...OUR STRATEGY
     Posted On: Monday, April 14, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

A LITTLE MORE ON SHORT POOLS

We have had many inquiries about the comments regarding short pools attacking stocks. What types of stocks do they attack? Clearly it would be stocks in an industry with declining fundamentals like financials.  The most recent example mentioned of short pools was in the context of their involvement in the Bear Stearns decline that preceded its forced sale to J.P. Morgan.  Other financials are likely to come under attack due to their deteriorated fundamentals. 

People have asked about whether they are attacking gold, energy, food or base metals stocks.  Our answer is, No.  In our opinion, it would be foolhardy to short and try to push down companies in industries where demand for their end products is so strong.  The industry groups where the short pools are more likely going to find their targets are in the financial and home building related areas. more...

  
GOLD STOCKS ARE GETTING CHEAPER VERSUS THE METAL ITSELF
     Posted On: Monday, April 07, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

GOLD STOCKS ARE GETTING CHEAPER VERSUS THE METAL ITSELF

In recent months, gold stocks have lagged in their performance and have not kept up with the appreciation of gold itself.  As a result, we have been shifting some of our gold investment into shares and away from the metal. 

We continue to favor shares with as little derivative exposure as possible.  We have been purchasing those with a royalty model, or those which self finance through share sales. more...

  
CENTRAL BANKS ARE ANSWERING THE CALL
     Posted On: Wednesday, April 02, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

CENTRAL BANKS ARE ANSWERING THE CALL

All of the actions we have been expecting from the developed country central banks and governmental agencies for the past several months have either been announced, or it has been stated that they are being actively considered. 

The markets have now inferred that a major meltdown of global markets has been averted…possibly for a few years. 

After this most recent scare, let us watch how the politicos react.  Will they opt for more constraints and restrictions; or will they display an understanding of how markets really work? more...

  

MOVING FROM INVESTMENT BANKS TO COMMERCIAL BANKS

     Posted On: Monday, March 31, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

A PREDICTION THAT WILL CHANGE THE FACE OF INVESTMENT AND FINANCIAL MARKETS

We predict that due to the current major market turmoil, large independent investment banks will cease to exist in the United States of America.


ONE CHARACTERISTIC OF INVESTMENT BANKS IS THAT THEY OPERATE AT ABOUT 30 TO 1 LEVERAGE…COMMERCIAL BANKS OPERATE AT ABOUT 12 TO 1 LEVERAGE

For this reason and others, we predict that there will be no investment banks in a few years.  Pressures from government will force them into the arms of commercial banks. more...

  
TRUST NEEDS TO BE RESTORED
     Posted On: Monday, March 24, 2008
     Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

THE WORLD IS DELEVERAGING

Easy money has disappeared worldwide. This event favors certain classes of investments globally, and penalizes others.


FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS:

AVOID LEVERAGED ASSET CLASSES
1. Financial stocks, including stock brokers, banks, mortgage lenders, insurance companies, and real estate
2. Highly leveraged businesses, and companies who grow by acquisition.
3. Avoid leveraged markets which are tied to leveraged economies that must borrow to grow.  For example, the U.S. and Europe plus other countries with balance of trade deficits and balance of payments deficits. more...

  
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