There is an industrial revolution taking place outside of the United States. Investment Capital is fueling infrastructure growth, technological innovation and economic success stories in developing nations around the globe. Presently, the top developed economies: the U.S., Japan, and Western Europe are growing their GDP at about 2% per year. The developing world is growing at 7-10% per year. Over the next 45 years, the GDPs of India and China will likely increase 22 fold, while the GDPs of the developed countries increase about 2.5 fold.
This current industrial revolution is happening much faster, and will dwarf the one that took Europe from a backwater (economically speaking) in the late Middle Ages to global dominance. Technological advancements in weapons, manufacturing, and transportation catapulted Europe’s economies over the much wealthier, more populous countries of China and India from the 16th century to the 19th century. Today, the huge populations in these Asian giants are getting a taste of “prosperity”, and they are becoming ever more motivated to improve their condition. They are educating their populations, embracing innovation, and leveraging their competitive and comparative advantages. It is only a matter of time before their GDPs are once again tops in the world.
Presently, about 1 billion out of the world’s 6.5 billion people are actively participating in the global economic system. By 2050, we expect 2 to 3 billion people out of an estimated world population over 7.5 billion will be frequent consumers of goods, savers, investors and participants in the global economy.
Massive infrastructure building projects are under way, and more are being planned. New markets for housing, automotives, consumer goods and services are being created. All of this points to dramatically higher demand for energy and raw materials. Well managed commodity exploration and production companies, and well positioned commodity industry suppliers are in a position to produce tremendous returns for their investors.
In order to achieve the higher returns being created by the addition of billions of people to the global economic system, investors must look to where the growth is, and where the tailwinds are strongest. Operating margins and corporate profits in industries serving the faster growing, less exploited markets expand more easily than in slower growing, mature exploited markets. Faster growing corporate profits equate to faster stock appreciation.
With these global changes, greater opportunities in the foreign exchange markets are being presented. Guild may hold positions in foreign currencies. As with any industry sector or company we target, researching and validating this type of investment assumes a bottom up analysis and is constantly evaluated.
While not without risk, the international investment arena provides the best reward/risk opportunities that we see going forward.
Since 1971, Guild has been managing portfolios in the global markets and has demonstrated an ability to perform in different market environments and macroeconomic climates.
Our clients, many of whom have been with us for decades, know that we have managed portfolios in global markets during periods of war, rising inflation, deflation, high interest rates, low interest rates, economic expansion, recession, political turmoil, and during bull and bear markets.
We recognize that we are a service business. At Guild, we pride ourselves on our ability to provide our clients with exemplary service and attention.
HOW DOES GUILD’S STYLE OF FUNCTIONING DIFFER FROM OTHER INVESTMENT MANAGERS?
Guild Investment Management is small enough to offer personalized service designed to meet your individual income and growth objectives. Yet we are large and experienced enough to offer many decades of experience as portfolio managers and security analysts.
WHO ARE YOUR CLIENTS?
Our clients are primarily private individuals and institutions seeking substantial returns and extraordinary service. Many have been with Guild for more than twenty years. Our attention is, and has always been, on increasing customer satisfaction through excellent performance and service.
HOW OFTEN WILL I HEAR FROM YOU?
As our client, you will receive an individual account or partnership statement and an economic review letter which describes our views on trends effecting the market each quarter. In addition, we periodically share our views on emerging demographic, social, political or economic developments. Clients are encouraged to call us anytime we can be of service.
HOW DO YOU DECIDE WHEN TO SELL?
Guild utilizes a disciplined selling strategy. When an investment meets our goals, or its risk/reward outlook is no longer as attractive, we will sell. When a company discontinues a long standing operating approach, or if the management, or strategic operating principles change, fundamentals deteriorate, we will sell. When the invested company stops implementing strategies that made them successful, we begin to look elsewhere for opportunities.
We constantly reevaluate all of our invested companies to ensure that their fundamental operations continue to meet our objectives. We believe our ability to sell an investment that no longer meets our criteria, and to seek opportunity elsewhere, is very important to our long-term investment success.