Nearly every economy on earth is growing, and American companies are earning far more than anyone expected in January. Analysts now see S&P 500 earnings per share rising 29% this year over last, up from about 13% when the year began. Stocks have not kept pace; the S&P 500 sits
Xi Jinping arrives in Washington later this month; when the two presidents met in Beijing in May, Xi reached rhetorically for the “Thucydides Trap” — national security scholar Graham Allison’s framing of a rising power and an established one stumbling toward an unnecessary and accidental conflict. He may reach for
As we wrote last week, the Treasury said on August 19 that it would at least double its buyback operations in the ten-to-thirty-year sector, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion apiece. Long yields fell on the news… and climbed straight back. Secretary Bessent called it a “Treasury Twist.”
We were planning to write about rates already after watching them climb for months. On Tuesday, as we were wrapping up this piece, yields on thirty-year Treasuries touched 5.339 percent, their highest since 2007. Then on Wednesday morning, the Treasury Department for all intents and purposes said “Enough!” and announced
First: Uranium The tightest areas in the uranium supply chain are downstream of the mine. Uranium itself (that is, processed ore) as we write, is at $86.90 per pound, roughly where it’s been since April. The two stages that come next — converting it into a gas, then “enriching” that
In last week’s commentary, we briefly discussed the destruction and fire sale of a large, highly leveraged hedge fund portfolio called Situational Awareness that was run by a smart 20-something year old. The fund was eyeball-deep in the AI trade; long all the important inputs AI requires (mainly semiconductors), and
Last week, Eli Lilly (LLY) announced that it would buy a development-stage psychedelics biopharma, AtaiBeckley, for roughly $2.8 billion in cash now, and a potential $1 billion more if Atai meets development and regulatory milestones. It may sound like a big number, but it is a drop in the bucket
We were surprised to read that Wall Street has never carried higher expectations into an earnings season than it is carrying into this one — recession rebounds aside. The bottom-up consensus (that is, analysts’ company-by-company estimates, added up) calls for S&P 500 earnings to grow 26.2% from a year ago,
If you strip the AI rally down to what the money is actually buying, you finally find transformers, high-voltage switchgear, copper, industrial-scale cooling, gas turbines, and data centers whose power draw rivals that of a midsize country — a build-out that Goldman Sachs estimates at roughly $7.6 trillion between 2026
Happy Fourth of July to all our readers! Here’s our patriotic but unsentimental analysis of where we stand midway through 2026, why we think it makes sense to keep betting on America, and how you should be thinking about market risks and dynamics. You can watch the video here and
Next week we’ll give you a video presentation of our first-half 2026 wrap-up and offer some thoughts as we enter the second half of the year. Beyond the MOU signed with Iran — which markets and the G7 have basically treated as a likely success — Washington has spent June
For most of the past decade, “tokenization,” in the minds of most investors, was in the same category as 2017’s meme coins and 2021’s million-dollar cartoon JPEGs of apes — a silly distraction in a then-madly exuberant fringe market, easy to wave away. If that’s still your view, it needs
This Friday, June 12, SpaceX — now enlarged by the recent merger with Elon Musk’s xAI and the X platform — begins trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. At the indicated initial pricing of $135 per share, the offering raises roughly $75 billion and implies a market value
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