The discussion surrounding the economic outlook for 2024 is multifaceted, with various factors influencing the global and United States economies. We are maintaining a bullish stance for 2024, despite potential slowdowns in global growth, particularly in China. Alongside China, Russia and several global commodity producers might experience a deceleration from Read more…
Last week, we described briefly some longer-term economic and political dynamics that render China problematic as an investment destination for us. As we noted, while Chinese equities may sometimes make an attractive tactical trade for investors who are so inclined, we think that’s all they should be, and that the Read more…
We’re going to spend December looking ahead at 2024’s prospects. We have an optimistic outlook for many global markets: in coming weeks we’ll describe why we’re bullish on Japan and India in particular, as well as giving our outlook on the United States. But today we’ll start with perhaps the Read more…
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But First: What’s That Up There, A Ceiling? Before we get to today’s main topic, a comment on the debt ceiling. It started innocently as a piece of World War I-era legislation intended to remove the threat of the Federal government running out of cash. But it was weaponized during Read more…
Japan The Bank of Japan has surprised global investors by widening the band of interest rates for its benchmark 10-year bond — something that hadn’t been expected until next year’s departure of its governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. The adjustment itself was slight, but it has outsized significance, because it suggests that Read more…
We believe the beginning of 2023 will likely bring a recession and more stock-market declines — perhaps beginning between now and the end of January. Since this recession will likely end in late 2023 or early 2024, and the market will discount the economic upturn by 6–12 months, we think Read more…
China Recently, developments in China indicate an almost chaotic exit to the country’s “zero covid” policy, suggesting potential opportunities in Chinese equities — which are still highly under-owned by global investors. In our view, as a brief, counter-trend technical euphoria in U.S. markets fades, a recession continues to loom over Read more…
A few significant events and data releases helped propel a relief rally yesterday. First, the release of Q3 GDP for the U.S., which was revised up to 2.9%. Second, JOLTS jobs data, which showed that the Fed’s tightening is having some impact on the labor market, but far from a Read more…
The ripples continue to spread from the collapse of what has now been revealed as an epochal fraud at FTX, formerly the world’s third-largest crypto exchange. The first blow came with revelations on the CoinDesk website, which had obtained a balance-sheet of FTX’s crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research, suggesting it Read more…
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