We wish our readers who are celebrating the holidays a joyful Easter and Passover (and in advance, we wish Eid Mubarak to those who will celebrate it later this month). OPEC+ (that is, OPEC plus Russia) made a surprise announcement of production cuts on Monday, bringing the cartel’s total cuts Read more…
As we enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday and the usually quiet half-day of trading that follows on Friday, a few notes on current events of potential significance that we are watching. First, China. Due to China’s central role as an engine of global commodity demand, sentiment in world stock markets can Read more…
Accelerating GDP data (annualized quarter-over-quarter at 2.6%, with the real-time “GDP Now” estimate running over 3%) and cooling PCE inflation data (4.5%) in the U.S. that were just released suggest that some of the most bearish economic prognostications have had the wind taken out of their sails. Earnings season is Read more…
With the S&P 500 bouncing off very long support at the 200-week moving average, the stage may be set for the bear market to get a breather. Inflation remains a clear problem, but as we have been telling you for some time, inflation will eventually begin to settle back from Read more…
In spite of its questionable fundamental foundations, the current rally continues, demonstrating clearly that psychology, not fundamentals, is often the most powerful near-term factor governing market action. There is certainly an element of short-covering at work, besides relief, wishful thinking, and the anticipation — misplaced, we believe — of an Read more…
The Federal Reserve, as expected, delivered another 0.75% rate increase, bringing the Fed funds rate to 2.5%. Markets were buoyant in response — perhaps concluding that a Fed pivot or declaration of victory is closer than feared, or that too much pessimism had been baked in about the likelihood, and Read more…
Yesterday, Wednesday, June 1, saw the publication of April JOLTS data – “job openings and labor turnover” — by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This report is one of the key data sources evaluated by the Fed as it monitors the U.S. employment situation; remember that its dual mandate is Read more…
After a brief moment of optimism (intoxication?) after Fed Chair Powell took 75-basis-point rises in the Fed funds rate off the table, stock markets accelerated their decline. The damage to stocks is more evident internally than externally. On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Read more…
What is Happening In China? Shanghai, and many other Chinese cities, are once again under extreme covid lockdown conditions — the most stringent since April 2020, as China pursues its apparent “zero covid” policy. The images and videos percolating through to western social media are profoundly disturbing, and prompt a Read more…
The economic tale of the pandemic, as we’ve often written in the past year and half, has been one where the acceleration of pre-existing trends has been remarkable — especially when it comes to technology. The after-effects of pandemic-era policies will be with us for some time — with many Read more…
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